The Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for global oil supplies, has been under siege for three months due to the war with Iran. Yet, despite the anticipated chaos, oil prices have remained remarkably stable, avoiding the feared skyrocketing levels. This paradoxical scenario has sparked intense debate among experts and analysts, with some attributing it to the mysterious 'clandestine flows' of oil bypassing the blockade. These clandestine flows, estimated to be around 2.1 million barrels per day, are believed to be facilitated by tankers turning off their transponders to avoid detection. While this has provided some relief, it's not the sole reason for the market's calm. Other factors, such as China's reduced crude imports and deeper-than-recognized demand losses, have also played a significant role. However, some oil veterans warn that the market might be underestimating the crisis, as stockpiles decline and gas prices could surge. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve in the United States is rapidly depleting, and experts predict that oil prices will average $130 a barrel in July and August, leading to gas prices above $5 a gallon this summer. This raises a deeper question: How long can the market sustain this calm before the real-world impact of the crisis becomes evident?
